ADVENTURES IN DOLLYWOOD

Hey folks, it’s all over but the shouting (and the squeals of gobsmacked surprise) at this year’s Oscars.

Who knew that Parasite would sweep four of the six categories it was nominated in, including Best Director (okay, I knew that one!), Best Picture and Best International Film (quite a double-header), as well as Best Original Screenplay. (It only lost in the Production Design and Editing categories.)

Anyway, I’m awarding myself a half point for suggesting Parasite was the likeliest spoiler in the Original Screenplay category, bringing my total to 7 1/2 correct predictions out of 10.

But even though the hoopla has died down a bit, we all know it wouldn’t be the Oscars without  — The Return of the (Dreaded) Oscar Barbies!

The Best Actress nominees in period costumes are always my favorites, so this year I decided not to even fool around with the nominees in boring modern dress.  Renee Zellweger’s mid-60s Judy (as in Garland) is just retro enough to make the cut. Besides, I knew she was going to win, so I positioned her snuggling up to the man in gold himself.

She’s flanked by Saoirse Ronan, as budding writer, Jo, in Little Women, and Cynthia Erivo as intrepid Civil War slave liberator, Harriet.

And, yes, it’s all about the props!

AND THE WINNER WAS . . .

Funny how time flies!

The Academy Awards were two weeks ago, already, and I have yet to inflict upon you . . . oops, I mean, share my annual Oscar Barbies post! You know, my crack-brained tradition of dressing up dolls from my misfit Barbie collection as the Best Actress nominees.

Well, you couldn't expect your luck to hold out forever. So, here she is (ta-da): Olivia Colman in The Favourite!

Okay, I only had the time and energy to do one nominee this year. But I picked the right one, as Colman went on to win the gold. (Beating out poor Glenn Close, in like her 49th nomination. Most movie fans are astonished to learn that Close has never actually won the Oscar!)

But if the highly peculiar The Favourite had to win anything (and that's a debatable point), I'm glad it was for Colman's fearless performance. Of course, Barbie is a lot more glam than Colman's sad-sack Queen Anne — but at least I got the bunnies right!

An old hippie earring of mine, planted upside-down in her copious hair, makes the perfect crown!

Maybe next year, I'll have time to do them all.

You've been warned!

DUELING DIVAS: IT'S A WRAP!

My dialogue with Christina Waters over this year's Oscar nominees continues!

CW: Best Original Screenplay - well here again I didn't see one of the nominees, First Reformed, but based on the films I did screen I'd say that Vice was the sassiest, The Favourite was the most eccentric, and Green Book the most appealing.

BUT, I'm thinking that Roma will take it based upon the care with which Alfonso Cuaron's memory revealed the many tiers of the class structure and family realities in Mexico City in the 60s. This may be where Roma was at its best.

LJ: And I'm at a disadvantage for not having seen Vice. I did see First Reformed, which unspooled as a taut, tightly-wound tirade against modern disconnection, as only veteran Paul Schrader (Taxi Driver; Raging Bull) can deliver. The Academy might go for it, in honor of Schrader's sheer, stubborn longevity.

Not CGI: Bale as Cheney in Vice

I don't think Roma's greatest strength is in its scriptwriting, as much as in the scope of its storytelling, but if it wins Best Picture it will likely win this prize too. By the way, of the Adapted Screenplay nominees, I only saw is Can You Ever Forgive Me, so I don't feel qualified to weigh in on that category.

CW:Makeup and Hair: Well it HAS to be Vice for its miraculous transformation of some fine actors—especially Steve Carell, Christian Bale and Sam Rockwell—into some of the highest profile politicos in the 20th century.

LJ: Agreed! Transforming Christian Bale into Dick Cheney seems more like a job for the CGI department, but they pulled it off with cosmetic wizardry alone!

CW:Costume Design: Wish I'd seen Black Panther because I have a strong feeling that Ruth E. Carter's costumes were bravura. But since I didn't, I'll take the foppish decadent crowd of 18th century dandies brilliantly costumed by Sandy Powell for The Favourite.

Black Panther: Tribal Meets Techno

LJ: Black Panther all the way for me. The rich Tribal-Meets-Techno vibe created by Ruth E. Carter was eye-popping, fun, and so smart! Whereas, The Favourite costumes looked slightly fake to me, like costumes you make for the Renaissance Faire with store-bought materials like rick-rack instead of elaborate period embroidery. But, intentionally fake, like everyone in the movie was in on a big joke, and they were all sniggering behind their fans at the absurdity of it all.

CW: Sound, there are actually two sound awards, one for editing—and here I'll take Bohemian Rhapsody, although I was intrigued by the sound in Roma; And there's Sound Mixing. Ditto Bohemian Rhapsody. Seriously, the Freddie Mercury & Queen rockumentary offered up a lavish tsunami of prime ripping, peeling, screaming rock'n'roll. The sound was one of the most potent characters in the film and moved us in, out and upwards through the mercurial (sorry) journey of this tragic rock icon.

LJ: I'm with you on Bohemian Rhapsody for Sound Mixing: getting all that iconic music to blend so perfectly in and out of the narrative was quite a feat. But let me play devil's advocate in the Sound Editing category, where one of the nominees is A Quiet Place — a vaguely futuristic, dystopian thriller in which a family must learn to hide in silence when stalked by deadly creatures with acute hearing. No, I didn't see it (or hear it), but it sounds like the kind of risky stunt movie Academy voters might take note of.

(The Academy Awards will be broadcast live, Sunday, February 24, beginning at 5 pm, on ABC. Tune in and see how we did!)

DUELING DIVAS DISH OSCAR (PART DEUX)

Best shot: Stone, Weisz aim for gold in The Favourite

CW: Best Supporting Actress.Is it just me, or is Amy Adams just not much of anything? I have never been able to figure out why she is even in movies. Anything she can do, Julianne Moore or Nicole Kidman or Julia Roberts can do much better. So she's out. Emma Stone, who was wonderful and Rachel Weisz, who can do no wrong, cancelled each other out in the sense that they were both spot on in The Favourite, in roles that literally supported the fabulous Olivia Coleman's Queen Anne.

My money's on the memorable Marina de Tavira, who helped give depth and emotional shape to Roma.

LJ: I haven't seen If Beale Steet Could Talk, or Vice yet, so I can't comment on Regina King or Amy Adams' chances. I don't necessarily think Stone and Weiss cancel each other out because they're both nominated for the same movie, but they both have recently won Oscars (Stone for La La Land, just two years ago), so probably will not be seen as due for another one so soon. I agree, Maria de Tavira has the inside track here, especially if Roma cleans up in other categories.

Ave Maria (de Tavira) in Roma

CW: Best Supporting Actor Sam Rockwell is a sly fox and he was a great George W. Bush in Vice. But again, I felt it was more impersonation. He gave us an original character in Three Billboards. And since I can't comment on Adam Driver, Sam Elliott, or Richard E Grant, I'll go with the elegant Mahershala Ali, who made the perfect foil for Viggo, and vice versa. Those two had chemistry to burn.

LJ: Sam Rockell is probably out, only because he won in this category last year in Three Billboards. Mahershala Ali won two years ago (and deservedly so) in Moonlight.

It's funny that Adam Driver is nominated in the supporting category when his co-star, John David Washington  (who played the black Klansman of the title) was passed over for a Best Actor nomination.

Richard E. Grant: caustic fun

The Academy has been trying to honor the ever-durable Sam Elliott since 2015, when he popped back into the public consciousness with a showcase role in I'll See You In My Dreams. One of the most reliable character actors in the biz — with perhaps the most distinctive voice — Elliott is overdue for an accolade, and the high-profile A Star Is Born could be his E ticket.

On the other hand, Richard E. Grant was great, caustic, slinky fun in Can You Ever Forgive Me? I don't think his co-star, Melissa McCarthy will win for Best Actress (she's de-glamorized in every movie she's in), but the movie's insider's look at literary shenanigans might have enough partisans to tip the gold to Grant.

Roma: scope

CW: Best Cinematography I admit I was mesmerized by the art direction in The Favourite and while engaged by the camerawork I was too aware of the use of fisheye lenses and other tricks. All of these visual devices worked to move the film's story forward but not without making their presence known.

 Roma's cinematic scope will very likely make it the winner in this category, but having said that I have to question the softness of imagery and lack of contrast.

Instead of crisp blacks and whites, Cuarón gives us fifty shades of grey. The film appeared murky, which might be a metaphor for the occluded skies of Mexico City (pollution). But as my friend and writer Rita Bottoms suggested, it might also be that the Mexico portrayed is seen through the eyes of the eldest son of the family (Cuarón as a child), and hence be murky or dim or somehow visually unclarified, as through a child's eyes. Interesting theory.

Cold War: intoxicating

LJ: I love that two of the nominated films are in black-and-white. The technique doesn't have to be crisp, for my money, only evocative, which Roma definitely is. Think of it as moody and pearlescent, not grey! And besides the chiaroscuro effect of black-and-white, Cuaron's compositions are enthralling, even if it's just water washing over a tile floor. If the Academy wants to give Spike Lee the directing nod, this award could be Cuaron's "consolation prize."

CW: I'll grant you Lisa, that opening of the water on the tiles, and the plane flying overhead reflected in the water—was enthralling. As good as Bergman. But chiaroscuro Roma wasn't. Very mise en scene, keeping the camera in one place and having life move in and out of it—that can work if there's some authentic emotional urgency, rather than bombarding us with a string of embarrassing and/or unpleasant incidents. Just didn't do it for me.

LJ: Well, for my money, the most evocative cinematography of the year — also in gorgeous black-and-white — is in Pawel Pawlikowski's Polish drama, Cold War. Shot by Lukasz Zal, it's dark, intoxicating, and complex — just like the tale it tells.

Bohemian Rhapsody: seamless movement

 CW: Best Film Editing I'd have to go with Bohemian Rhapsody on this. Seamless movement through time, space, and emotional volume as the camera shifted perfectly from Mercury's anxieties to edgy rehearsals and up onto the stage itself, offering us the strutting Highness of Queen, as well as the adoring audiences responding. Fabulous immersion into Mercury's ascent, decline, and legacy.

LJ: Um, I never actually notice film editing, unless it's so clunky, it stops the action cold. As long as the picture keeps moving, I'm happy!

*     *     *

NOTE: It's beyond weird, not to say reprehensible, that the Academy, has decided this year to hand out the awards for Cinematography and Editing during commercial breaks — that is, unseen by the viewing audience watching at home.

Excuse me, but despite my snarky comment above, Editing and Cinematography are what make movies movies: the motion and the pictures. Relegating these key awards to the not-ready-for-prime-time slot, in hopes of shortening the TV broadcast, is a crime against cinema. The Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences ought to know better.

DUELING DIVAS

Thousands cheer Bohemian Rhapsody. Could it win Best Pic?

For, oh, about 1000 years now, my pal and colleague, Christina Waters, and I have been talking movies. Once upon a time, we thought about mounting our own movie review program — Dueling Divas — but inertia always set in. But today's technology enables to finally realize our dream — no TV studio required! So here goes! Feel free to listen in:

CW: Hey there Lisa - well I have to say of this list of 8 nominees for Best Picture this year, I have seen only 5 (five).

Bohemian Rhapsody—kickass music and attitude; Roma—languid, real-time memoir; The Favourite—visceral history lesson with three powerful dames; Green Book—crisp storytelling with appealing characters; and Vice—gritty and ugly underbelly of politics.

Didn't see: Black Panther, A Star is Born, or BlacKkKlansman, all three of which left town before I had a chance to check them out.

So I'm going to be clueless about Spike Lee's long overdue Oscar nomination, as well as the Marvel Comics saga, and whether or not Lady Gaga is the star that was born.

Any comments about this lineup of nominees?

Black Panther and his team: Wakanda Forever!

 LJ: Black Panther was a helluva lot of fun (although my favorite Straight Outta Oakland movie of the year was the exceptional Blindspotting). (Actually, it's my favorite movie of the year, period.) I think the main thing you can see from this list is that Academy voters were trying to support diversity of themes, cultures, and styles in their nominees. Only A Star Is Born is the kind of old-fashioned mainstream melodrama that Hollywood always used to recognize with Oscar nominations —pretty much to the exclusion of any other kind of movie.

(Alhough I have to admit, I skipped this one, having aready seen the previous four versions. We're heading for a new Oscar category: Best Revival of a Stone-Dead Property We've Already Seen a Million Times.)

I too missed BlacKkKlansman, but if it has an iota of the wit and audacity of Lee's best (Do The Right Thing or She's Gotta Have It), it'll be a worthy contender.

Roma: the discovery of slowness

I loved Bohemian Rhapsody, Queen nut that I am, but I'm surprised it's getting so much year-end awards attention. (But not displeased.) It's probably my favorite movie on this list. Despite — or possibly because of — its slow beginning, Roma really touched me as a mood piece about stillness and observation and being present in the journey of life. Green Book was highly entertaining, thanks to well-matched co-stars Viggo Mortensen and Mahershala Ali, and I'll bet Vice is a riot, in its own weird way, although I haven't caught up with it yet.

The Favourite is the only nominee I question on the list. All three lead actresses were terrific, but I don't understand why Yorgos Lanthimos has a career, or what he's trying to do with it.

Olivia Coleman as Queen Anne, The Favourite: imperious vulnerability

CW: As I watched the very stylish, postmodern, and over-the-top The Favourite I realized quickly that I was watching Olivia Coleman win the Best Actress Oscar. Her daring, generous, and courageous performance, throwing herself into the least flattering situations and camera angles, all the while moving with lightening speed from despair to delight, was a tour de force. And while I agree with you that Lanthimos' filmography is beyond weird, the performances definitely held my attention. No holds barred as far as the three female characters/actors went.

LJ: I agree about Olivia Coleman; she was absolutely fearless in staying true to her cranky, sad-sack character, no matter how awful she looked onscreen — and that's the kind of anti-glam riskiness that wins Oscar votes. (Just ask Charlize Theron or Nicole Kidman.) She was also brilliant in creating the only character in this very mannered and peculiar movie viewers could possibly care about, in all her imperious vulnerability.

But let's not count out Glenn Close. After a high-profile career full of nominations, she has yet to be the bride. Whatever might be said about The Wife, it might simply be Close's turn.

CW: Yes, it's high time Close won, and her recent SAG award tends to point her toward an Oscar.

LJ: Also, pay attention to Yalitza Aparicio, who is living the Star-Is-Born dream in real life as an unknown getting the lead in Roma. If the multi-nominated Roma shows signs of sweeping, her chances are excellent.

CW: Can't agree with you about this performance. The director seemed to insist that we be impressed, and often with Roma I felt manipulated.

The Best Actor category seems more closely matched. Viggo Mortensen was fantastic as the loud, crude, decent blue collar driver—he embedded himself in this role and clearly had a great time with it. Showed Viggo's oft-overlooked depth as a resourceful actor. Willem Dafoe was obviously acting, and while I love him (or perhaps I should say I love looking at him, all teeth, and jaw, and wild eyes), he didn't convince me. Christian Bale was spot on as Dick Cheney, but I felt as though I were watching a reenactment rather than a creative interpretation, whereas Rami Malek, as Freddie Mercury seemed to illuminate the man, the insecure boy looking for love, and ultimately the consummate rock star.

Malek as Mercury: the year of the Killer Queens!

So Rami Malek gets my vote as winner. And there seems to be much momentum in his favor.

LJ: Rami Malek was outstanding; he inhabited Freddie Mercury right down to the prosthetic overbite! He will, he will rock me if he wins!

I love Willem Dafoe too, but the despairing angst with which he was encouraged to chew his way through the horribly misbegotten At Eternity's Gate will probably not be mistaken for a great performance by Academy voters. (Although, they gave Leonardo DiCaprio an Oscar for two hours of grunting and panting in The Revenant, so who knows?) Besides, only 12 people in the world saw the movie, including you and me, and we're not voting. Meanwhile, Mortensen could cruise to gold as a genial, blue-collar shmo who disovers, and then rises above, his own racism in Green Book. (He also packed on 40 pounds for the role, the male equivalent of an actress deglamorizing herself, by Oscar standards.)

But I can't help but think that Academy voters might go for Christian Bale, a chameleon who physically remakes himself for every role. The politics of Vice allign with a large percentage of Hollywood and its Oscar voters. And who could resist Bale's acceptance speech at the Globes, where he thanked Satan for giving him the inspiration to play Dick Cheney?

Surprise nominee?

CW: Best Director: I realize there will be some serious momentum for Spike Lee for what is incredibly only his first nomination. Unfortunately he's up against auteur Alfonso Cuarón, whose Roma was a poetic memoir of his own childhood. The Academy loves that kind of stuff. He wrote, produced, photographed, and directed this black and white elegy, but I didn't love the film. Something missing, that something that kindles rather than insists upon my empathy. The film did not touch me. But I absolutely appreciate the scope of his ambition here. And I think he will take the Oscar.

LJ: I'm just tickled that two of the five directors are nominated for foreign-language films — unusual in Oscar history (if one is not named Fellini). Cuaron already has an impressive Hollywood track record (from Y Tu Mama Tambien to the third Harry Potter movie, to Children Of Men). So he might have an edge here, even though he already has a directing Oscar for Gravity.

Polish filmmaker Pawel Pawlikowski is a surprise nominee — but maybe not so surprising, if his Cold War (which I am jonesing to see; it just opened in Santa Cruz) is anything like his brilliant Ida of a few years ago.

Lee's chances are excellent in his first-ever directing nomination — far better than Adam McKay's for Vice, making an irreverent comedy out of the Bush/Cheney moment in American politics. And I continue to be mystified by the Svengali-like hold that Yorgos Lanthimos exerts over the moviegoing public, especially critics. I passionately hated his breakout movie, The Lobster, for its mean-spirited cruelty in the name of satire, and the smug, farcical, slapstick tone of The Favourite just eludes me. I don't get it.

(Next time we’ll look at the undercard — including Supporting Actors, Screenplay, and Cinematography. Stay tuned!)

THEY'RE B-A-A-CK AGAIN!

Well, friends, the Academy Awards will be handed out tonight.


And you know what that means:


 Oh no! Oh yes! It's the Return of the Oscar Barbies!


There are no Best Actress nominees from historical films this year — unless you count movies set in the '60s, '70s, and '80s.

No Judi Dench flouncing around in crinolines as Queen Victoria; no new Jane Austen adaptations. Those are always the most fun to do.

Still, there's room for creativity in this year's nominees.



First up: Margot Robbie as Tonya Harding in I, Tonya.

Okay, yes, she's got roller skates, but I grew up in SoCal so I didn't have Barbie's ice-skating outfit! I made this outfit from bits and pieces — just like Tonya had to do — and the doll's exaggerated hair and makeup are (for once) perfect!


Next up, Saorise Ronan in Lady Bird! Nothing too distinctive, costume-wise — except the slightly pink hair.


I really had a hard time coming up with props for this one.

So I finally resorted to a prom dress from Barbie's closet to reference the scene when Lady Bird and her mom go shopping, and quit their petty bickering the instant they both fall in love with the same dress!


Our third nominee is Meryl Streep, playing publisher Katherine Graham in The Post.

 

Fortunately, I have a tweed suit, string of pearls, and a vintage short-haired Barbie for — well, basically, any time Meryl Streep gets nominated. (Which is every year.)

All I needed to do this year was Google The Washington Post and print out a mini version of the front page.


Next up, my favorite challenge of the year, for my favorite movie — Sally Hawkins in The Shape of Water!


There's not much to her outfit‚ a blue dress and a blue sweater, like all the cleaning staff wear at the secret government lab in the movie. (Also, those shiny black shoes.)

Of course, I had to make the mop, not an item typically fond in Barbie's wardrobe.


But the main event here is her "prop" — the Amphibian Man himself! Yes, it's The Creature From the Black Lagoon, from the classic 1950s sci-fi movie that director Guillermo del Toro cheerfully admits inspired his own character.


This image is on the lid of the box containing the Creature model kit. (Art Boy never built the model, so I had to use the lid.) I found the perfect industrial-green construction paper to frame it in, and Art Boy cleverly constructed the rest of the "tank" around it.


But, as much fun as they were to make, these nominees are the also-rans this year.

And the winner is: Frances McDormand in Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri!
 

Definitely the toughest challenge of the year. She spends the entire movie in the same blue-denim jumpsuit, most of which I had to make — the top half, anyway. She has basically no hair, what there is of it wrapped in a bandana. (I had to use a twisty piece of wire ribbon.)


And while I was able to paint out some of her eye makeup, I couldn't do anything about her girly grin.


Still, it all came together when, searching for some kind of prop, we found a Barbie-sized Coke bottle squirreled away somewhere. Art Boy made it into the Molotov cocktail McDormand's character throws in a key scene in the movie — one way for this doll to express McDormand's rage, despite that wimpy grin!


That's it for this year. Click here for a peek at Oscar Barbies Past!

OSCAR SHAPES UP

Frances McDormand, 3 Billboards: blackly comic

Mavericks to duke it out at 90th Academy Awards

After the OscarSoWhite hashtag movement a couple of years ago, the Motion Picture Academy's demographics have altered.

With membership now opened up to a younger, more diverse crowd of film pros, you might expect this year's nominees to feature a few plucky mavericks vs. the mainstream favorites.

But — surprise! Almost none of the nominees qualify as "mainstream," including the two top contenders: Guillermo del Toro's eerie, romantic fantasy, The Shape of Water, and Martin McDonagh's blackly comic morality play Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri.

Guillermo del Toro in the (Best) Director seat

While the predictive winners in all four acting categories are pretty much set in stone (results have been uniform throughout the awards season), there's still plenty of room to stir up trouble!

Here's what I think will happen:

BEST PICTURE Three Billboards Outside of Ebbing, Missouri Usually, if you subtract the four (out of nine) nominees whose directors didn't get a nomination in their category, that narrows the field to five serious contenders.

But even though McDonagh wasn't nominated for directing Three Billboards, it's already won a Golden Globe for Drama, and the Screen Actors Guild Ensemble award. The Shape of Water is my favorite movie of the year, but I think it will rack up its Oscars elsewhere.

Gerwig directed herself and star Saoirse Ronan to Oscar nominations

Or it could be that The Shape Of Water has just gotten so much buzzier even since those early awards were issued to Three Billboards that it might just bubble up to the top here, as well.

The Post was a favorite going into the season, with its timely tale of crusading journalists standing up for the truth, but here, the lack of a nomination for director Steven Spielberg suggests it's run out of steam since then.

Less likely (but not impossible) upsets might by Greta Gerwig's smart, beloved indie comedy, Lady Bird, or Jordan Peele's darkly subversive racial-politics horror movie Get Out (Gerwig and Peele both scored directing nominations).

Jordan Peele directs star Daniel Kaluuya, Get Out

BEST DIRECTOR  Guillermo del Toro, The Shape of Water He's already won every award there is in this category — in compensation for Three Billboards walking off with most of the Best Picture prizes — but mostly because Del Toro's irrepressible, iconoclastic personality infuses every frame of this rapturous movie.

Gerwig won a Golden Globe in the comedy category, and Peele earned a Best First Feature nod from the Directors Guild on America (although Del Toro won Best Director from the DGA). So anything is possible.

BEST ACTRESS Frances McDormand, Three Billboards  Bet the rent; name an award in this category, and she's already won it. And deservedly so.

BEST ACTOR Gary Oldman, Darkest Hour Another shoo-in, like all four favored acting nominees. Besides, there has to be some kind of recognition for a guy who started out playing Sid Vicious tackling the role of Winston Churchill.

Rockwell, McDormand, 3 Billboards: Winners

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS Allison Janney, I, Tonya  She doesn't just "disappear" into the role of Tonya Harding's cold, heartless mom; Janney plays her in a trance-like state of viperish perversity.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR Sam Rockwell, Three Billboards He's got all the buzz, as the hot-headed deputy dragged kicking and screaming to a kind of redemption. I thought his co-star, Woody Harrelson (also nominated) was just as good in this category.

But I'd have liked to see a shout-out for Doug Jones in The Shape of Water. A longtime Del Toro co-conspirator (he played Fauno/Pan in Pan's Labyrinth, and was recently seen as the impossibly elongated alien First Officer Saru in Star Trek: Discovery), Jones' poignant Amphibian Man romancing Sally Hawkins gives the movie its heart and soul.

Doug Jones, Amphibian Man: Romantic

OTHER Here's where those new Academy members may prevail with an Original Screenplay award to Peele for Get Out, beating out Del Toro and McDonagh (Although the latter has scored some pre-Oscar awards for Three Billboards). Veteran director James Ivory looks poised to win the Adapted Screenplay award for Call Me By Your Name.

Expect Blade Runner 2049 to score gold for Cinematography, while Phantom Thread wins in the Costume department. (Although, for a movie about the fashion industry, I found the clothes as lackluster as everything else in Phantom Thread.)

Meanwhile, The Shape of Water should swim to victory for its atmospheric sea-green Production Design, and its expressive Original Score by Alexandre Desplat.

(The 90th Annual Academy Awards will be broadcast Sunday, March 4, at 5pm on ABC.)

BOYS TOWN II

Predicting Oscar gold in a 50-Shades-of-White year
   
You don't need to be psychic to predict that, come Sunday night, Oscar gold will be bestowed on a movie whose cast, filmmakers and subject matter are mostly—how can I put this?—white and male. Because what else is there to choose from?

(Btw, don't you love this year's poster? A savvy, yet obvious attempt to defuse the issue of color—or lack thereof.)

Over at Boys Town (aka: the Motion Picture Academy), white male ensemble casts were almost the only nomination-worthy movies of 2015. Still there's less consensus than usual about front-runners this year, which might lead to some surprises in the otherwise cookie-cutter sameness of the field overall.


BEST PICTURE Spotlight This is really a close call. But out of the eight contenders, we can eliminate the three films whose directors didn't get nominated (adios Brooklyn, Bridge of Spies, and The Martian), and further weed out Room, which hasn't garnered any pre-season buzz in this category.

White men (and one token woman) to the rescue.

Which boils down to three buzz-worthy contestants: The Revenant, The Big Short, and Spotlight, each of which has earned some pre-season love. (As has Mad Max: Fury Road, although I don't think Academy voters will take it seriously in this category.)

On the strength of Leonardo DiCaprio's almost certain lock on the Best Actor prize, The Revenant looks like the one to beat—except that director Alejandro González Iñárritu already won for best film and director last year for Birdman.

But I'm betting that even if he does score a second consecutive Best Director award, Oscar gold will still go to Spotlight, the kind of smart, hard-hitting issue movie that Hollywood likes to applaud itself for making.

Iñárritu and Leo: Boys Club.

BEST DIRECTOR Alejandro González Iñárritu, The Revenant. Okay, I wasn't that crazy about the movie, but it was a pretty amazing directorial achievement. Iñárritu has been cleaning up, pre-season, and my hunch is his winning streak will prevail over Tom McCarthy (Spotlight), Lenny Abrahamson (Room), George Miller (Mad Max: Fury Road), and Adam McKay (The Big Short).

BEST ACTOR Leonardo DiCaprio, The Revenant. I don't get it either, how 2 1/2 hours of grunting through the wilderness counts as acting; DiCaprio has given far better performances, where he actually spoke dialogue. But, hey, it's his turn.

Plus, the Academy won't be able to resist putting Leo up on the podium with Kate Winslet (just in case she wins Supporting Actress for Steve Jobs—as she deserves to), 20 years after Titanic. I'd vote for Bryan Cranston (Trumbo), or Michael Fassbender (Steve Jobs); Eddie Redmayne (The Danish Girl) and Matt Damon (The Martian) round out the category.

Larson: buzz-worthy

BEST ACTRESS Brie Larson, Room. The no-brainer of the year. She's already won every other award in this category, over Cate Blanchett (Carol), Saoirse Ronan (Brooklyn), Charlotte Rampling (45 Years), and Jennifer Lawrence (Joy).

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR Sylvester Stallone, Creed. For the same reason as above; plus, this is the award they never gave him for Rocky when he was in his prime. Sorry, Christian Bale (The Big Short), Mark Rylance (Bridge of Spies) and Mark Ruffalo (Spotlight). Possible (but unlikely) upset: Tom Hardy, The Revenant, (although it would only be a backhanded nod to Mad Max: Fury Road.)

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS Alicia Vikander, The Danish Girl. Odd, that she was nominated in the supporting category, since her bewildered, yet fiercely loyal artist wife of a transgender pioneer was the heart of the movie.

But with four high-profile films this year, Vikander deserves to win something. I'd give her the Best Actress prize and give this Oscar to Kate Winslet, for her pithy, Polish gal-Friday in Steve Jobs, over Rachel McAdams (Spotlight), Rooney Mara (Carol), and Jennifer Jason Leigh (The Hateful Eight).

SHORT TAKES: Look for Spotlight and The Big Short to win their respective Original and Adapted Screenplay awards. (MIA: Aaron Sorkin, unnominated for his smart, literate script for Steve Jobs.)

My guess is Inside Out will trump Anomalisa for Best Animated Film, and the Hungarian drama Son of Saul will crush the Foreign Language competition.

Expect the vast snowscapes of The Revenant to earn Cinematography gold, while Mad Max: Fury Road speeds off with the Costume and Production Design awards that I would give to The Danish Girl—if only they had asked me!

Danish Grrls: it won't win, but how gorgeous is this production design?

POST OSCAR POST

Due to popular demand (thanks, Annie!), here's a peek at my 2011 Oscar Barbies. It was such an uninspiring group of nominees, costume-wise (all modern women in contemporary clothes, yawn...) that I almost didn't bother. But I decided to do Natalie Portman in Black Swan because I just happen to have a 50-year-old Barbie ballerina outfit in my possession, and when will I ever have another chance to use it?

Once I got into the spirit of the thing, I didn't want to be rude and leave anyone out, so here's the rest of the Best Actress lineup. Most of them anyway; I opted not to do Nicole Kidman, since I didn't see Rabbit Hole. Instead, I added Melissa Leo in The Fighter, in all her trampy glory. (Clutching a pair of boxing gloves that I happened to have left over from an old Hilary Swank, Million Dollar Baby Barbie.)

To the far side of the "Oscar," that's Annette Bening in The Kids Are All Right, Jennifer Lawrence's mountain girl in the frigid Ozarks in Winter's Bone, and Michelle Williams as the embittered young wife in Blue Valentine. Like I said, not much to work with this year, but, hey, it keeps me off the streets and out of trouble.

My favorite real-life, grown-up outfit at the Oscars this year? Annette Bening's beaded, Art Deco-patterned metallic number in shades of black and silver. Okay, she missed out on the Oscar she deserved, but she gets my vote for the coolest dress—sort of a cross between slinky Fortuny glam and Robot Maria (from Metropolis). And this is absolutely the last thing I have to say about the Oscars for the rest of the year. Promise.

FEARLESS OR CLUELESS?

Speaking of the Oscars, if you have any serious money riding on the outcome, check out my fearless predictions in this week's Good Times. In the meantime, here's the no-frills version:

BEST PICTURE: The King's Speech. This is fine with me, impeccable as it is in every way, although I'd love to see Toy Story 3 win.

BEST DIRECTOR: Tom Hooper, The King's Speech.

BEST ACTOR: Colin Firth, The King's Speech. And good for him; he's always great. My favorite? Javier Bardem, Biutiful.

BEST ACTRESS: Natalie Portman, Black Swan. No power of earth can stop her in this category, but damn if I can figure out why. My favorite? Annette Bening, The Kids Are All Right.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR: Christian Bale, The Fighter, well-deserved in a very strong field.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS: Melissa Leo, The Fighter. Oscar loves a lady who transforms into a tramp. My favorite? Helena Bonham Carter, The King's Speech.

Fearless or clueless? Find out Sunday night. As usual, should these prognostications fail to pan out, I'll be here next week to deny I ever made them.